| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | W | Kansas State | 24-21 | 1675.7 | +78.3 | 1754.0 | 59.8% |
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | South Dakota | 55-7 | 1754.0 | +0.0 | 1754.0 | 81.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Iowa | 16-13 | 1754.0 | +27.3 | 1781.3 | 60.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Arkansas State | 24-16 | 1781.3 | +11.9 | 1793.2 | 89.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Arizona | 39-14 | 1793.2 | +13.3 | 1806.5 | 79.8% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Cincinnati | 30-38 | 1806.5 | -68.8 | 1737.7 | 85.3% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Colorado | 17-24 | 1737.7 | -63.2 | 1674.5 | 79.9% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | BYU | 27-41 | 1674.5 | -31.7 | 1642.8 | 30.3% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Arizona State | 19-24 | 1642.8 | -43.6 | 1599.2 | 43.4% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | TCU | 20-17 | 1599.2 | +61.8 | 1661.0 | 34.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Kansas | 38-14 | 1661.0 | +19.2 | 1680.2 | 71.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 20-13 | 1680.2 | +7.3 | 1687.5 | 93.6% |